“Cathedral thinking”
I have
spent part of the summer teleworking in Bourges, central France. And Bourges
has the most beautiful cathedral in the world. Yes, I know, we always take
pride in the place we come from, but in this case, it truly is a wonder. Of
course, it took a few decades to build, but not so many (maybe fewer than a
French EPR). And it has been towering above the city for almost 800 years.
Maybe this is why Roman Krznaric’s proposal about “cathedral thinking” in his latest book appealed so much to me.
Every year
in September, after getting away and a change of air, we go back to work with
renewed energy and new ideas. But this year is different and this proposal to
think differently sounds like a necessity. For the philosopher, it means
defining what being a good ancestor involves and what legacy we want to leave.
“Cathedral thinking” involves being more specific in our forecasting, turning
our back on grand crystal-ball foresight exercises and concentrating on what we
want.
For the
European institutions, this autumn means engaging in a fierce debate on the
revision of the 2030 climate objective to increase GHG emission reduction targets
to 65% (as demanded by some parliamentary groups) or to 55%, a decision which the
President of the EU Commission should announce in her first State of the Union
address on 17th September. But will this battle of figures make us
good ancestors? Is this “cathedral thinking”?
I do not
question the need to raise our ambitions collectively. I would like it to be the
obvious thing to do as it is just a cautious reflection of the IPCC’s
recommendations and yes, aligning our legal frameworks is important. But I
cannot help thinking we should move on to another conversation.
And in this
regard, the publication of the first Strategic Foresight Report of the European
Commission comes as a pleasant surprise. It is one of the novelties of the 2019-2024
body of commissioners, having a Vice-President, here Maros Sefcovic, in charge
of foresight. The report suggests a new compass for EU policies: resilience.
The
European recovery plan had also made resilience its centrepiece, but without defining
it. This report does. Resilience[i]
refers to “the ability not only to withstand and cope with challenges but also to undergo
transitions in a sustainable, fair and democratic manner“. Resilience must be
embedded in all policies as an objective. The Commission proposes a dashboard based
on national vulnerability indicators, which seeks to identify systemic
interactions between the various transitions (for example between green and
digital transitions).
This report
does not answer the “where are going?” question… But it provides a grid to
assess whether EU policies are compatible with the resilience objective.
As Vice-President
Sefcovic noted: “We cannot expect
the future to become less disruptive.[…]Trying to guess what lies ahead[…] is
of limited value. […]….To map possible paths to a preferred future, and to better steer our action as a result, this is what strategic
foresight is about”[ii].
All we have to do is draw up a preferred future. And answer the question “What does it take to be good ancestors?”[iii].
Lots to think about on returning to work!
[i] Resilience is the ability not only to withstand and cope with
challenges but also to undergo transitions in a sustainable, fair, and
democratic manner. Resilience is necessary in all policy areas to undergo the
green and digital transitions, while maintaining the EU’s core purpose and
integrity in a dynamic and at times turbulent environment. A more resilient
Europe will recover faster, emerge stronger from current and future crises, and
better implement the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.‘extract from the strategic foresight report
2020’ https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/strategic_foresight_report_2020_1.pdf
[ii]
“We cannot expect the future to become less
disruptive. New trends and shocks – like the coronavirus pandemic – will
inevitably emerge and affect our lives. Trying to guess what lies ahead,
especially in today’s world of rapid, complex changes, is therefore of limited
value. Crystal balls do not work in real life….to map possible paths to a
preferred future, and to better steer our action as a result. This is what
strategic foresight is about: anticipating, exploring, acting” https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/opinion/raising-our-game-through-strategic-foresight/
[iii] The good ancestors conversations
should answer the following questions (Deep-time humility > what have been
your most profound experiences of deep-time, and how did they affect you?;
Intergenerational justice > what, for you are the most powerful reasons for
caring about future generations?; Legacy Minset > What legacy do you want to
leave for your family, your community and for the living world ? Transcendent
Goal > What do you think should be the ultimate goal of the human species?
Holistic forecasting> do you anticipate a future of civisational breakdown,
radical transformation or a different pathway? Cathedral Thinking > what
long-term projects could you pursue with others that extend beyond your own
lifetime? )‘extract from ‘The Good Ancestor’ Roman Krznaric, published by WH
Allen, 2020
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